Letter from the CIO - Mar-26: A time dependent tipping point

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With little warning, the world has been plunged into a war between the US/Israel and Iran. The critical issue for investors is not the headlines themselves, but whether this conflict becomes long lived enough to impair economic growth or meaningfully alter the inflation and policy outlook. Markets can absorb shocks, but what they struggle with is duration meaning that “time” is the tipping point for the crisis to manifest itself into an economic shock that matters for markets.

With little warning, the world has been plunged into a war between the US/Israel and Iran. The critical issue for investors is not the headlines themselves, but whether this conflict becomes long‑lived enough toimpair economic growth or meaningfully alter the inflation and policy outlook. Markets can absorb shocks, but what they struggle with is duration meaning that "time” is the tipping point for the crisis to manifest itself into an economic shock thatmatters for markets.

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