Letter from the CIO - Stagflation - Already a misused label?

Download
Download

Stagflation has re‑entered Australia’s macro vocabulary with unusual ease, but the label is doing far more rhetorical work than analytical work. In technical terms, Australia does not (yet) meet that definition, but the risk is already being amplified with qualifications somewhere in the fine print. Stagflation is a powerful word, but misusing it risks overstating the threat and misunderstanding how both policy and markets are likely to respond.

Stagflation hasre‑entered Australia’s macro vocabulary with unusual ease, but the label isdoing far more rhetorical work than analytical work. In technical terms,Australia does not (yet) meet that definition, but the risk is already beingamplified with qualifications somewhere in the fine print. Stagflation is apowerful word, but misusing it risks overstating the threat andmisunderstanding how both policy and markets are likely to respond.

Download
Download